Fifteen months after persistent fighting on multiple Middle Eastern fronts against Iran’s Axis of Resistance, the fighting in Gaza has come to an end. On January 15, 2025, a ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas. Four days later, on January 19th, this armistice came into effect.
The conflict that this treaty has brought a halt to is the Israel-Hamas war, which had been ignited by the October 7th terror attack launched by Hamas into the Gaza Envelope of Southern Israel. During this incursion, Hamas along with Gazan civilians murdered 1200 civilians and took an additional 251 hostages. As a result, an Israeli offensive was engendered. Israel’s response has targeted and killed several key Hamas militants and leaders, but has also resulted in around 47,000 Palestinian deaths. This is largely due to the fact that members of Hamas have a tendency to hide among civilian infrastructure, essentially using their own civilians as human shields. Former United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has explained this, stating, “Uniquely in Gaza, besides having a population that’s been trapped there that has nowhere else to go, you have an enemy that embeds itself in and amongst civilians, houses, hospitals, mosques, schools, and getting a clear picture and a clear understanding of whether any one incident in that context constitutes a violation of international law — it’s an incredibly complicated thing to do, especially to do it in real time.”
This agreement was brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States. Egypt and Qatar have attempted to portray themselves as neutral, but in reality, they are largely pro-Palestinian. Hamas originated as an offshoot of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which has influenced some Egyptian policies toward the group. Qatar has provided significant financial and political backing to Hamas. Qatar has also sheltered Hamas’s leadership, allowing them to operate from its territory. Contrarily, the United States has historically supported and been allies of Israel.
As for the provisions of this agreement, it will be broken down into three phases, each six weeks long. In the first phase, Hamas agreed to release 33 Israeli hostages. Those released in this initial stage would be either women, children, or the elderly. Israel, in return, would release up to 1,904 Palestinian prisoners, including around 200 convicted murderers. Israel would also allow the entry of humanitarian aid (600 trucks per day). Hamas will likely hijack this aid, however, as they have done so in the past. Concurrently, Palestinian civilians will be able to return to their homes in Gaza, and Israel will begin withdrawal from some parts of Gaza.
In the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis, and Israel would release additional Palestinian prisoners. This second phase would also entail a permanent withdrawal of the remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip.
The third and final stage would involve the release of all the remnants of deceased Israeli hostages, in exchange for Israel releasing the remains of deceased Palestinian bodies that it holds. Israel will also end its blockade of the Gaza Strip, and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities. This phase would also begin the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, as many of them are in rubble due to Hamas’ concealment of weaponry and militants in and under them throughout terror tunnels.
It should be noted that bilateral agreement to this ceasefire for both sides was ultimately spurred by an impending Trump presidency. Israel’s doctrine when it comes to this conflict may be categorized into two objectives: deposing Hamas from rulership over the Gaza Strip, thus ensuring that they would no longer present a threat to Israel, and securing the freedom of the hundreds of hostages taken captive on October 7th. Hamas was aware of Israel’s history of agreeing to unfair deals in return for their hostages. For example, in the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, when Israel exchanged 1027 prisoners and terrorists for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. One of the terrorists released by Israel in this swap was former leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who was cured of his brain cancer by Israel and was the mastermind behind the October 7th attack. Trump’s influence on Israel’s concurrence to this ceasefire can be attributed to his administration’s ability to not stymie Israel back in the event that this deal does not hold and that he would not call for Israel to leave Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip. Biden, on the other hand, was keen on pressuring Israel into a deal. However, he wanted to provide Hamas with their every request, which went against Israel’s goals for this conflict, including declaring a final ceasefire and calling for the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Gaza Strip. Strategically significant territories included in this withdrawal are the Netzarim Corridor, which splits the Gaza Strip into North and South, and from Philadelphi Corridor, which is the border between Gaza and Egypt, previously used as a thoroughfare for smuggling weapons and money into the Gaza Strip. The relinquishment of these areas would allow Hamas to exert greater control over movement and trade throughout its territory in addition to terror activity.
Hamas’ aspiration is to retain power over the Gaza Strip and for the complete withdrawal of Israel from Gaza. Hamas sees its continued presence as the governing entity of the Gaza Strip as means of legitimacy as they will have “prevailed” in this conflict over an “oppressive” western power. This is in spite of their heinous actions towards their own people, such as withholding resources and establishing bases among civilian infrastructure. The goals of each of both Hamas and Israel are clearly contradictory, hence previous hindrances of arriving at an agreement. Hamas’ compliance is a result of the conclusion of the Biden administration’s weak foreign policy and of the incoming far more commanding Trump Administration. Biden has exacerbated and prolonged this conflict by hamstringing Israel’s ability to conduct necessary military operations to eradicate Hamas’ leadership whether it be through the denial of arms shipments or the condemnation of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. On the other hand, President Trump has lamented that “If those hostages aren’t back … if they’re not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. And it will not be good for Hamas.” Hamas recognizes that under Trump’s presidency they will not receive a more favorable deal, in line with their goals, and ultimately settled on the current one.
Nevertheless, as this agreement takes effect, we must closely monitor the situation in Gaza. Regardless of where one stands, it should be acknowledged that this ceasefire has put an end to a devastating 15-month war that has resulted in numerous tragedies on both sides. Moving forward, the focus must be on ensuring lasting peace and rebuilding the lives of those affected.