UFC 313 is coming in hot on Saturday, headlined by Light Heavyweight champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira who will be fighting the #1 contender Magomed Ankalaev.
Pereira in his last three bouts has knocked out Jamahal Hill, Jiří Procházka, and Khalil Rountree. In Ankalaev’s last three fights, he had a controversial draw against Jan Blachowicz, knocked out Johnny Walker, and dominated Aleksandar Rakić in a 3-round decision in a title eliminator bout. These two will be looking to put on a show March 8th in Nevada for the Light Heavyweight championship belt.
Keys to Success for Alex Pereira: Low calf kick/Diverse Striking
The keys to success for Alex Pereira shouldn’t change too drastically for this fight. Pereira does not telegraph his low calf kick, which will present problems against Ankalaev, who struggled with the heavy leg kicks of Jan Blachowicz. His low calf kick is arguably the best in the UFC right now. Of course, he also has his nuclear left hand, which will always give him the upper hand; however, his jab and straight punches against Khalil Rountree really impressed me, and I expect to see them against Ankalaev as well.
Weaknesses: Offensive/Defensive Wrestling
Ex-Glory Kickboxing double champion Alex Pereira is one of the greatest strikers in the world, however he struggles heavily against opponents who have grappled/wrestled him. Jan Blachowicz and Israel Adesanya are some notable opponents who have had success in wrestling him, and with Magomed Ankalaev being a champion in Sambo, if Ankalaev decides to wrestle him it may be difficult for Pereira to strike effectively with the takedown threat.
In his last fight against Khalil Rountree, he missed many high kicks from kicking out of range, and when he got caught, he struggled to recover.
Keys to Success for Magomed Ankalaev: Mix it up and cut the cage
The key to success for Magomed Ankalaev is to mix up the striking with his elite wrestling. Although Ankalaev has elite kickboxing, it pales in contrast to Pereira’s, and mixing up or feinting the takedown should open up the striking more for Ankalaev. Ankalaev should also look to take the center of the octagon and cut the cage so Pereira’s back is facing the fence, as Pereira’s hands dip when looking for his counter shots against the cage.
Weaknesses: Calf/Leg kicks and cockiness
As stated before, Ankalaev has had great trouble in defending the low kick, with Jan Blachowicz severely damaging his legs. If he doesn’t push the pace quickly and allows Alex to low kick him at range, he will have trouble getting his offence going with compromised legs. It only takes 2-3 calf kicks from Alex to damage a leg, and as seen before, Ankalaev does not defend them well at all. Other than that, his cockiness may prove to be his downfall, as he has stated that he will keep the fight on the feet and acts as if he has already won the fight.
Final Thoughts
Pereira vs. Ankalaev is a decisive fight, with both being the best talent at 205 lbs, and I would not be surprised if this fight ends in a knockout; however, I predict a close 5-round decision in favor of Alex Pereira.