On December 8th, headlines shocked the world with the announcement of the Assad regime’s collapse. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was the first opposition group to march on Damascus since 2018. 

Since the fall of the ISIS Caliphate in 2018, the Syrian Civil War has waned from international headlines. However, reports of HTS gaining territory—capturing major cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs with little resistance—brought it back into view. HTS forces also made gains in Southern Syria and were able to enter Damascus with little opposition. 

Following the government’s collapse, President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia under the protection of Vladimir Putin. 

“There are many reasons behind the collapse of the Assad government. However, I believe that Russia’s prolonged military involvement in Ukraine, combined with Israel’s actions to weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon, emboldened Sunni militants and contributed to the government’s destabilization,” says Ethics and World Religions teacher Clint Hackenburg.

While the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have been huge distractions for the powers backing Syria, there is no question the regime being unpopular did not help its stability. 

“If you rule by fear and intimidation you can only do that by being very strong and very repressive. I think at some point people will stop buying into it. Adding on to that, with no outside support, Assad couldn’t hold Syria together, and he was left alone with no friends. That’s why it went so quickly,” says Global Politics teacher Martin Jorgensen. 

In addition, with major powers no longer having influence in Syria and the Islamist extremist connections of the group, many wonder about the future of the country.

“Syria has been a repressed country for more than 50 years, so we don’t know how it is going to pan out, but the best case is they put together a broad coalition of Syrian parties and everyone else stays away,” says Jorgensen. “Without foreign influence, the Syrians can create something that can last. If we all keep poking our noses in, it is harder to create a stable solution.”

To Jorgensen, Syria’s freedom from foreign influence will be key to its success as a functioning state. 

On the world stage, Iran and Russia have emerged as big losers from this collapse.

“The collapse of the regime has led to a weakened Iran and Russia as both have lost a significant ally in the region, making both lose a substantial ability to show military power throughout the Middle East,” says Junior Quinn Harrell. 

It disrupts the Shia “axis of resistance” for Iran. Iranian support for Hezbollah heavily relied on Syria for transport. Russia’s military bases in Syria are no longer protected by the government. 

Not only does it lack guaranteed access to strategic military bases, but Russia can no longer use its foothold in Syria for counter-terrorism operations. 

HTS is designated as an international terrorist organization by the UN Security Council. Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, the leader of the rebel group, has stated that his goal is to establish a new government in Syria. While many wonder whether his statements, alluding to a departure from authoritarianism and new prosperity in Syria, will become true, what is true is the regions in Syria in which HTS controlled civilian life went from being some of the poorest to some of the fastest growing. 

In Idlib—formerly Syria’s poorest region according to BayTMagazine—HTS has developed modern infrastructure development, continuous electricity supply, and new commercial developments like a university serving 18,000 students. Al-Jawlani also claims he will protect ethnic minorities, unlike what was done under Assad. Under Assad, ethnic minorities like the Kurds were discriminated against. 

“HTS will likely not benefit the country as they will likely aim to take out the Kurdish groups in the North of the country,” asserts Harrell, contrary to what Al-Jawlani says. 

“Honestly, I do not believe HTS will bring prosperity to Syria,” says Hackenburg. “Until it demonstrates otherwise, my expectations remain low for a religious, non-democratic government. Plus, unlike other authoritarian regimes in the region, Syria lacks significant oil reserves that could offset the consequences of a corrupt, ineffective government.”

Whether Syria emerges better or worse from this event, the speed and causes of the regime’s collapse demand reflection.